On January 30, 2024 Anton Löf presented at the Future mine & mineral 2024 conference in Stockholm, Sweden.
Metals are fundamental building blocks of societies and cultures. Metals such as iron and copper have played central roles in the social and economic development of societies historically. In 2022 the global average GDP per capita was USD 12 688, the United States GDP per capita for the same year was USD 76 330. In the same year the Sub-Saharan African GDP per capita was USD 1 701. There are millions of people waiting to see their societies develop.
Despite the fact that societal development has been the primary reason for metals demand all through history the current global discussion is focusing on demand in relation to the green transition. In a yet to be published World Bank study by RMG Consulting, demand for Steel, copper, and nickel in 2050 is analysed from a point of view of societal building.
The result, demand is most probably outperforming most current forecasts.
· Total demand for metals in 2050, according to the model, will reach:
o 3 772 Mt for steel,
o 54 377 kt for copper, and
o 5 649 kt for nickel.
· This represents annual growth rates of 2.3 % for steel, 2.7 % for copper, and 2.7 % for nickel.
· These yearly growth rates can be compared to growth rates for the previous 30-year period 1990-2020: steel 3.3 %, copper 2.9 %, and nickel 4.0 %.
· Modelled growth rates are thus lower than those which the industry managed during the previous 30-year period.
· In all modelled scenarios the peak in metal demand comes beyond 2050.
· Comparing modelled demand in 2050 with previous forecasts by the IEA, modelled demand is:
o Steel – IEA growth 0%, modelled growth 92%,
o Copper – IEA growth 59%, modelled growth 118%,
o Nickel – IEA growth 150%, modelled growth 117%.
· However, demand for nickel, and to a lesser degree copper, may be underestimated in the model because new technologies connected to the green transition, for example battery technologies, may not be fully accounted for.
· The demand projections of this paper could thus be seen as a floor on top of which demand from new energy sectors should be added.
· Thus, it seems likely that total demand of steel, copper, and nickel has been underestimated in previous studies.